Objective verifications and false alarm analyses of western North Pacific tropical cyclone event forecasts by the ECMWF 32-day ensemble   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hsiao-Chung Tsai  Russell L. Elsberry  Mary S. Jordan  Frédéric Vitart 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(4):409-420

  相似文献   

Short-crested wave-induced soil response in a porous seabed of infinite thickness     

J. R. C. Hsu  D. S. Jeng  C. P. Tsai 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1993,17(8):553-576

Waves reflecting obliquely from structures establish short-crested waves which are conducive to scour of the bed adjacent to them. The pore pressures and effective stresses induced by this wave system are derived analytically for an unsaturated, anisotropic soil matrix of infinite depth in a three-dimensional domain. Verification is available by the solutions being readily reduced to the two-dimensional cases of the progressive and standing wave, for which some closed-form solutions are available. It is shown that wave obliquity is coupled with soil permeability. The effects of wave obliquity, relative water depth, soil stiffness and soil permeability on wave-induced pore pressure are discussed in detail.  相似文献   

Amino acids produced from the ultraviolet/extreme-ultraviolet irradiation of naphthalene in a H₂O+NH₃ ice mixture     

Y.-J. Chen  M. Nuevo  T.-S. Yih  W.-H. Ip  H.-S. Fung  C.-Y. Cheng  H.-R. Tsai  C.-Y. R. Wu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,384(2):605-610

  相似文献   

Lateral cyclic response of an aluminum model pile in sand     

Jiunn-Shyang Chiou  Zhi-Wei Xu  Cheng-Chang Tsai  Jin-Hung Hwang 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2018,36(5):554-563

Lateral cyclic load tests were performed on an aluminum model pile in dry sand. Two levels of loading were adopted to represent different service load conditions. The maximum number of loading cycles was 1,000. From the test results, it was found that the even though in the service load condition, the pile response was still affected by cyclic effects and a larger load level would produce more significant influence. In a global point of view, the lateral displacement and maximum moment increased with loading cycles, while the secant stiffness within a cycle decreased with cycles. The cyclic effect was more significant on the lateral displacement than on the moment. In a local point of view, cyclic loading would degrade the equivalent subgrade stiffness for the soil shallower than about seven times diameter. In addition, the secant subgrade stiffness within a cycle increased with loading cycles. Some experimental relationships of lateral pile response and loading cycles were built and compared with those in the literature.  相似文献   

Global ionosphere map constructed by using total electron content from ground-based GNSS receiver and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC GPS occultation experiment     

Yang-Yi Sun  Jann-Yenq Liu  Ho-Fang Tsai  Andrzej Krankowski 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(4):1583-1591

Effects of rapidly changing ionospheric weather are critical in high accuracy positioning, navigation, and communication applications. A system used to construct the global total electron content (TEC) distribution for monitoring the ionospheric weather in near-real time is needed in the modern society. Here we build the TEC map named Taiwan Ionosphere Group for Education and Research (TIGER) Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) from observations of ground-based GNSS receivers and space-based FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) GPS radio occultation observations using the spherical harmonic expansion and Kalman filter update formula. The TIGER GIM (TGIM) will be published in near-real time of 4-h delay with a spatial resolution of 2.5° in latitude and 5° in longitude and a high temporal resolution of every 5 min. The F3/C TEC results in an improvement on the GIM of about 15.5%, especially over the ocean areas. The TGIM highly correlates with the GIMs published by other international organizations. Therefore, the routinely published TGIM in near-real time is not only for communication, positioning, and navigation applications but also for monitoring and scientific study of ionospheric weathers, such as magnetic storms and seismo-ionospheric anomalies.  相似文献   

Global morphology of ionospheric F-layer scintillations using FS3/COSMIC GPS radio occultation data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lung-Chih Tsai  Shin-Yi Su  Chao-Han Liu 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(3):1037-1048

We report on the FormoSat-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (FS3/COSMIC) limb-viewing observations of GPS L-band scintillations since mid-2006 and propose to study global F-layer irregularity morphology. The FS3/COSMIC has generally performed more than 1000 ionospheric radio occultation (RO) observations per day. We reprocess 1-Hz amplitude data and obtain complete limb-viewing profiles of the undersampling (sampling frequency lower than Fresnel frequency) S4 scintillation index from about 80% of the RO observations. There are a few percent of FS3/COSMIC RO observations having greater than 0.09 undersampling S4max values on average. However, seven identified areas, Central Pacific Area (?20° to 20° dip latitude, 160°E–130°W), South American Area (?20° to 20° dip latitude, 100°W–30°W), African Area (?20° to 20° dip latitude, 30°W–50°E), European Area (30°–55°N, 0°–55°E), Japan Sea Area (35°–55°N, 120°–150°E), Arctic Area (>65° dip latitude), and Antarctic Area (<?65° dip latitude), have been designated to have a much higher percentage of strong limb-viewing L-band scintillations. During the years in most of the last sunspot cycle from mid-2006 to the end 2014, the scintillation climatology, namely, its variations with each identified area, season, local time, magnetic activity, and solar activity, have been documented.  相似文献   

Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions in Bifurcation Situations with Guidance-On-Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones     

Hsiao-Chung Tsai  Russell L. Elsberry 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2018,54(3):421-430

An objective technique to detect and predict intensity bifurcation situations in a five-day Weighted Analog Intensity forecast technique for the western North Pacific (WAIP) has been extended to seven days. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to the N analog intensities to separate them into two clusters, which are considered to represent a substantial intensity bifurcation if a threshold maximum velocity difference of 15 kt is satisfied. Two important modifications have been made to develop the bifurcation version for seven-day WAIP forecasts. First, the number of track analogs has been increased from 10 analogs to 16 analogs, which results in larger sample sizes and better performance. Second, separate intensity bias corrections are calculated for the two cluster WAIP forecasts rather than using the same 16-analog intensity bias correction. If an always perfect selection of the correct cluster WAIP forecast of each bifurcation situation is made, a substantial improvement in the intensity mean absolute errors is achieved relative to the original WAIP forecasts based on all 16 of the best analogs. These perfect-cluster selection WAIP forecasts have smaller bias errors and are more highly correlated with the verifying intensities at all forecast intervals through 168 h. Furthermore, the Probability of Detection is improved for the perfect-cluster selection and more realistic intensity spreads are specified. A simple guidance-on-guidance technique is demonstrated to assist the forecasters in selecting the correct WAIP cluster forecast in bifurcation situations.  相似文献   

Seismic design and testing of buckling‐restrained braces with a thin profile          下载免费PDF全文

Pao‐Chun Lin  Keh‐Chyuan Tsai  Chieh‐An Chang  Yu‐Yun Hsiao  An‐Chien Wu 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(3):339-358

A thin‐profile buckling‐restrained brace (thin‐BRB) consists of a rectangular steel casing and a flat steel core that is parallel to a gusset plate. A thin configuration reduces the width of the restraining member and thus saves usable space in buildings. However, deformable debonding layers, which cover the steel core plate in order to mitigate the difference between the peak tensile and compressive axial forces, provide a space for the steel core to form high mode buckling waves when the thin‐BRB is under compression. The wave crests squeeze the debonding layers and produce outward forces on the inner surface of the restraining member. If the restraining member is too weak in sustaining the outward forces, local bulging failure occurs and the thin‐BRB loses its compression capacity immediately. In order to investigate local bulging behavior, a total of 22 thin‐BRB specimens with a ratio of steel core plate to restraining steel tube depth ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and axial yield force capacities ranging from 421 kN to 3036 kN were tested by applying either cyclically increasing, decreasing, or constant axial strains. The restraining steel tube widths of all the specimens were smaller than 200 mm and were infilled with mortar with a compressive strength of 97 MPa or 55 MPa. Thirteen of the 22 thin‐BRB specimens' restraining members bulged out when the compressive core strains exceeded 0.03. A seismic design method of the thin‐BRB in preventing local bulging failure is proposed in this study. Test and finite element model (FEM) analysis results suggest that the outward forces can be estimated according to the BRB compressive strength, steel core high mode buckling wavelength, and the debonding layer thickness. In addition, the capacity of the restraining member in resisting the outward forces can be estimated by using the upper bound theory in plastic analysis. Both the FEM analysis and test results indicate that the proposed method is effective in predicting the possibility of local bulging failure. Test results indicate that the proposed design method is conservative for thin‐BRB specimens with a large steel core plate to restraining steel tube depth ratio. This paper concludes with design recommendations for thin‐BRBs for severe seismic services. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Framework for Groundwater Prediction under Uncertainty          下载免费PDF全文

Nima Chitsazan  Frank T.‐C. Tsai 《Ground water》2015,53(2):305-316

Groundwater prediction models are subjected to various sources of uncertainty. This study introduces a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a hierarchical structure and conduct BMA for concentration prediction. A BMA tree of models is developed to understand the impact of individual sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation to model predictions. HBMA evaluates the relative importance of different modeling propositions at each level in the BMA tree of model weights. The HBMA method is applied to chloride concentration prediction for the “1,500‐foot” sand of the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana from 2005 to 2029. The groundwater head data from 1990 to 2004 is used for model calibration. Four sources of uncertainty are considered and resulted in 180 flow and transport models for concentration prediction. The results show that prediction variances of concentration from uncertain model elements are much higher than the prediction variance from uncertain model parameters. The HBMA method is able to quantify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the total uncertainty.  相似文献   

Comparison of web plate numerical models for self‐centering steel plate shear walls          下载免费PDF全文

Patricia M. Clayton  Ching‐Yi Tsai  Jeffrey W. Berman  Laura N. Lowes 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(12):2093-2110

Previous research has shown that self‐centering steel plate shear walls (SC‐SPSWs) are capable of achieving enhanced seismic performance at multiple hazard levels, including recentering following design‐level earthquakes. When modeling SC‐SPSWs numerically, these studies considered an idealized tension‐only steel plate shear wall (SPSW) web plate behavior. Research has shown that web plate behavior is more complex than predicted by the idealized model, and web plates can provide more strength, stiffness, and energy dissipation than predicted by the idealized model. The idealized model of web plate behavior is used widely in SPSW numerical models where the moment‐resisting boundary frame provides supplemental hysteretic damping and stiffness; however, in SC‐SPSWs, where the post‐tensioned boundary frame is designed to remain elastic during an earthquake, accounting for the more complex web plate behavior can have a significant impact on seismic performance estimates from numerical simulation. This paper presents different methods for modeling SC‐SPSWs. Responses from these models are compared with experimental results. A simple modification of the tension‐only model, referred to as the tension‐compression strip model, is shown to provide a reasonable approximation of SC‐SPSW behavior. Results from nonlinear response history analyses of SC‐SPSWs with the tension‐only and tension‐compression web plate models are compared to assess how the approximation of web plate behavior affects SC‐SPSW seismic performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献